The Problem May 2 Percent GDP Growth

market have a nice surprise on Friday morning when the Commerce Department reported that the U.S. economy will grow 2 percent (PDF) in the third quarter. It is better than the consensus estimate of 1.8 percent of economists surveyed by Bloomberg, and a good bit stronger than the 1.3 percent pace in the second quarter. Investors were clearly disappointed expectations, the Dow Jones showed nearly 25 points during the first few minutes in the morning trade. But as they dig into the numbers, they were surprised smile turned into a grin, and a sell-off that lasted for nine days continuously apace.That 'because the number of sections 2 percent looks much better than it actually is, which is scary because 2 percent is not exactly stable to begin with. "Wan" may actually be redundant. It is clearly not enough to eat growth rate at 7.8 percent unemployment life. Or generate enough tax revenue to reduce the deficit. A good chunk of that growth of 2 percent from a strange surge in defense spending to mask some major pretty ugly, especially on the business side things.After fell for eight previous quarters, total consumption government and investment grew 3.7 percent during the third quarter. Much of that comes from the federal government, which increased 9.6 percent. And most of that is from national defense spending, which surged 13 percent, after a string of three straight quarterly contraction of 0.2 percent, 7.1 percent, and 10.6 percent return in the fourth quarter of last year. That's a head-scratcher for many economists. Julia Coronado, chief North American economist for BNP Paribas (BNP), said he and his team are called the Bureau of Economic Analysis on Friday morning to ask about the blip in defense spending. "They say this category associated with the maintenance," said Coronado.Given withdrawals in Iraq and Afghanistan, defense spending has so far this fiscal year under the budget, Coronado said: "So they use or lose "That spending has gone to any of the planes and tanks of other types of equipment in the field .. Given the automatic cut in defense with fiscal cliff, it may be a little last hurray for defense contractors. Sudden surge in spending on national defense and encouraging investment at a time adjusted annual rate of $ 807.8 billion to $ 834.6 billion. "The idea that we have collected a large number of defense budget for the first quarter is not positive for the economy," said Mike Englund, chief economist for Action Economics. "Excellent find the headline figures to 2 percent, but certainly depleted defense increasing activity in the fourth quarter." So this case "Chicago" at the White House goosing the numbers in the top- up to the election, such as Jack Welch is not so subtly hinted after work surprise earlier this month? Not a chance. "This is a big difference between Jack Welch administrative claim Cook's book," Englund said. "It's completely different animal." Defense spending tends to be thick, because it is mostly for big-ticket stuff. Purchase of additional aircraft or tank could spike in spending by several hundred million dollars. According to Englund read about the data, spending rose in May and June, razed in July and August, and then rose again in September. The understanding of the volatility that is a "problem sifting through large procurement projects went through," said Englund.This also seen situations where the lack of resolution regarding the fiscal cliff Obama administration seems to have benefited less than two weeks before the election. Defense analyst Michael O'Hanlon, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, wrote in an e-mail: "Looming absorption convince people to complete a contract with the power of last year's budget so that it will not take risk begins lost. "In other words, smoke 'em while captured' em.More disturbing, though, is how bad the investment business will continue to grow. Spending on equipment and software is completely flat from last quarter. The last time that happened in the second quarter of 2009, during the recession fully teeth. Meanwhile, the consumer really dizzy, sharpen differences with melancholy. Private consumption rose 2 percent. Cars and trucks will continue to fly numerous car sales grew at an annual rate of 14.9 million, which was the fastest since March 2008. Consumer sentiment is higher than this since September 2007. That is just plain weird. Ignorance, it seems, really is bliss. Coming fiscal cliff looming just a few months away, the consumer is "happy to realize," said Coronado. "That humming along the cliffs do not understand what this means or how they will be affected."


To Tax or Not to Tax Overseas Cash Hoards

Updated the time frame in which $ 187 billion of accumulated foreign earnings abroad, and to clarify where and when government officials proposed a minimum tax rate that can be paid to the state foreign countries to free the company from having to pay U.S. taxes. One little mentioned the subject of debate on how to meet the $ 16000000000000 sovereign debt crisis a boon to other countries and how companies are taxed on them. Because the tax code currently allows companies to defer taxes on foreign earnings, Bloomberg estimated to grow by $ 187 billion in 2011, many chose to stay abroad without certainty than paying the IRS, the a rate of 35 percent, to repatriate the money. Said Kimberly Clausing, an economics professor at Reed College, lost to the U.S. Treasury $ 90000000000 (PDF) in 2008 as a multinational corporation legally avoid paying taxes by leaving the money in overseas.Staffers Senate Subcommittee on Investigations recently discovered that Microsoft posted three catches in offshore subsidiaries, the accounting approach according to the researchers of the Senate allows the company to shave of $ 6500000000 of the tax bill for the last three years. Subcommittee also reported that HP has a child overseas loans to the parent company in the U.S., a way to transfer money home without having it taxed, the sub-commission. My colleague Jesse Drucker Bloomberg News reported 2007-2009, Google avoided paying $ 3.1 billion in foreign tax profits.The left-leaning advocacy group Citizens for Tax Justice estimated that if all income from earnings abroad companies' Collected, Treasury raised $ 583 billion over 10 years. That is not a huge amount, but it is not necessarily optimal facing Obama and Mitt Romney either.President propose a different plan for addressing repatriation. Romney said the donor during this summer that big business is "fine in many areas. ... They know how to find a way to get through the tax code, save money by placing various objects in an area where there is a low-tax havens in worldwide for their business "(Romney also has some own wealth offshore accounts and. Was told not to reduce his tax bill) Romney and Ryan want to lower the corporate rate to 25 percent and install the territorial tax system, where foreign income is not taxed at all when they return to the U.S. strategy ". actually encourage American companies to bring overseas profits back where they can use to hire new employees for or invest in a new plant at home, "said Romney spokeswoman Andrea Saul me.Obama plan would reduce the corporate rate to 28 percent and force the company to pay taxes on their foreign income to the IRS each year. There is one exception: If a company has to pay the minimum price of a particular tax to a foreign country, the company does not owe U.S. tax. But the president has not spelled out what is the minimum level. Rebecca Wilkins, a tax lawyer with the Citizens for Tax Justice, tells me that at the meeting of the group and others in the White House this year, administration officials floated the possibility of a 20 percent rate. Critics of the proposal say if level is set too low, the plan could prevent the money from the U.S. back to the company shores.When given tax holiday in 2004, they were allowed to repatriate profits of 5.25 percent -The Congressional Research Service found that companies use extra money to pay dividends, among others, but not to create jobs. Clausing of Reed College argued that the territorial system will encourage more companies to shift profits overseas because they can take them home tax-free, tax-free makes it more attractive than the current are.Romney and other support from the territorial state tax system that most foreign income taxes, puts the U.S. at a competitive disadvantage. But these countries also have strict policies and policing strategy intended to prevent the company from profit to assign children abroad, said Wilkins. However: the European Union, which has a territorial system, is considering leaving for the very reason Romney and Ryan said the United States should sign it-EU countries had a hard time getting the company repatriate profits.Obama could not push his company improved tax through Congress this year. Also can get Democrats to sign the company's tax plan Republican Representative Dave Camp of Michigan reform, which is exempt 95 percent of overseas revenue from company taxes. If the problem resurfaces in budget negotiations are expected to panic after 6 November, brace for battle.


A Bonds deficit back Derivatives bet

Starting next year, the new rules will force banks, Hedge funds and other traders to support more of their bets on derivatives markets 648000000000000 USD to post collateral. While the rules are designed to prevent another financial crisis, the Treasury bonds and other shortcomings of the top-rated debt to use as collateral could undermine efforts to make the system more secure. Derivatives allows consumers to bet on the direction of currencies, interest rates, and the market, insuring against default on the bonds, or lock in prices of commodities. The new guidelines root in the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act, passed in reaction to the imminent collapse of the financial system in 2008, due in part because of the derivative contract is not backed by collateral. American International Group (AIG) requires a $ 182.3 billion bailout from the U.S. government after failing to make good on derivatives trading by some of the largest banks in the world. In response, Congress has required that the majority of privately negotiated derivative transactions, known as the trading of over-the-counter through clearinghouses. For Clearinghouses, powered by companies such as Chicago-based CME Group (CME) and LCH.Clearnet Group based in London, making the warranty of entrepreneurs, including government bonds, which can be confiscated and easy- converted into cash to cover defaults. Traders may need from $ 2 trillion to $ 4 trillion in additional collateral to meet the new requirements, according to Timothy Keaney, CEO of BNY Mellon Asset Services. The problem is to find all the high-grade debt. With U.S. $ 10.8 trillion in Treasuries outstanding at the end of August. Other countries, including Japan and the European countries rate AAA or AA, with about $ 24 trillion of debt in the second quarter of 2011, according to the April report of the International Monetary Fund. They Sun is in heavy demand from central banks and solution investors.The:At least seven banks plan to allow customers to exchange low-rated securities that do not meet these criteria, in exchange for loans Treasuries or the same ownership are eligible, a process called "; collateral change" scheme that allows investors to assets that do not meet the standards clearinghouse for corporate bonds, mortgage or mortgage- relevant securities to banks in exchange for loans of Treasuries. Investors then post-Treasuries, which changed the collateral for clearing. Banks earn fees plus interest, and investors are obliged at some point to restore Treasuries. As a result, the guarantee rented.That increasing concerns among the investors, bank executives, and academics that are intended to prevent the risk of hiding instead. "We just kept piling on a lot of operational risk we convert a form of security to another," says Richard Prager, head of global trading at BlackRock (BLK), the world's largest asset manager. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Bank of America (BAC) will Mapping market their new mortgage-changing table, company executives said. Other banks confirmed that they plan to offer services as well, including the Bank of New York Mellon (ak), Barclays (BCS), Deutsche Bank (DB), and State Street (STT). "The change of the collateral is a client service that does not hide the risks," said Jennifer Zuccarelli, a spokeswoman for JPMorgan Chase. "It is a form of short-term secured loan, which is always an important part of the capital market, subject to strict capital and liquidity rules and fully transparent to regulators." Goldman Sachs Group (GS) is also planning offering of collateral changes, a person with knowledge of the matter. A spokesman for the bank declined the comment.For bank, securities lending market expanded to make billions of dollars in costs, even as the industry is facing shrinking revenues due to increased reporting and regulatory competition Prices in derivatives trading, according to a report from consulting firm Oliver Wyman Group. At the same time, they could suffer losses if a default dealer and took his bail. In this case, the banks were left holding losing Treasuries and low levels of bond traders, changing the collateral posted. New bank business loan '"smells like," said Anat Admati, finance and economics professor at the Stanford Graduate School of Business who studies markets and trade and bank regulators recommend systemically important companies. "The goal of the initiative is that the derivatives derivatives can hide a lot of risk," says Admati. "Now they just shuffle the risk around."


Taking bets on Las Vegas Real Estate revival

Renee and McCuistion / BloombergThe Dwaine McCuistions take a second gap Vegas housingRenee and Dwaine McCuistion, who lost their home in Las Vegas after a default in 2010 , was lucky again. They buy another property in October for $ 475,000, 42 percent less than what the previous owner paid. "In all so low, we think it is important to start building equity again," Renee said, sitting on the terrace four-bedroom house in Red Rock Country Club. Home prices fell 62 percent from 2006 to early 2012 the steepest declines in U.S. metropolitan areas attract consumers yet another Vegas. The number of homes listed for sale dropped to 1.5 months of supply, down from four months of a common stock in the area, said Jeremy Aguero, principal at Applied Analysis, Las Vegas research and advisory firm . One reason for the supply squeeze: buy investors such as Blackstone Group (BX), GTIS Partners, and Haven Capital assets deep discounted rent homes in bulk profit.Home in Las Vegas rose 3.8 percent in 12 months through September, according to the S & P / Case-Shiller, compared with an increase of 3 percent nationally. "In the last six months, people will get their money together and realize that prices overcorrected," said John Burns, housing consultant. "Las Vegas home is a great value." Risks and overly long distinguishing feature of the city. "When you bring this action city, you want to bring heavy," wrote Hunter S. Thompson in 1971 Fear, books and loathing in Las Vegas. And so when the U.S. housing boom led Nevada to the estimated 275,000 new homes built from 2000 to 2007, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The McCuistions that many residents of Las Vegas betting in a big house with a larger debt. Renee, 49, who works as a manager at a credit card processing center, the main breadwinner. Dwaine, 45, is a police officer. Combined annual revenue came to $ 175,000. Near the peak of the boom in 2007, the couple bought a four-bedroom house $ 679,000 to the development of golf in the northwestern part of the city, taking the 30-year jumbo loan $ 611,000 at a fixed rate of interest 7 percent, and the $ 57,000 second mortgage. A third mortgage on their condo rent, plus mortgage insurance for a low down payment, made $ 6,000 in monthly housing costs. "You can see the flashing lights of the city at night," said Dwaine. "We ignore the three Fairways." Then an old back injury worsened Dwaine, and 60-hour workweeks payment center caught Renee, who began experiencing headaches and neck pain. In early 2010, the price of Las Vegas in free fall, both facing spinal surgery, medical leaves, and loss in revenue. Two jumbo loans failed in December of that year and they were moved out of their homes when sold for $ 349,900 in March 2011 in an all-cash sales brief. "It's embarrassing," said Renee. "We are raised to be assertive about finance and credit, and we lose control." In a sign that the market is Las Vegas has changed, the nature of drawing multiple bids. Richard Weiss, who moved from Arizona in January with my wife and two young children, he said "lowballed" bid on a dozen properties before realizing that he needed to go to much. Finally he succeeded on October 18, completed the purchase of a short sale for $ 230,000 in a house that sold for $ 549,900 sa 2005.Not sure all sustainable return. Nevada rate 11.5 percent unemployment life remains the worst in the U.S. Gary Beasley, managing director for waypoint Real Estate Group, an investor plural, as far away from Las Vegas because he believes momentum can be lost: " , The Las Vegas market tends to be very cyclical and not come back, but we do not clear what was the catalyst for the rise in prices "Although they failed their jumbo loans, McCuistions continued when the second mortgage and loans for rental properties ... That track record, along with a medical hardship, assuring their current lender to give them a new credit at Red Rock Country Club home, said Heidi Together, their broker. McCuistion basic monthly mortgage payments on time is about $ 1,800, said Renee, who never returned to work. Payment will be Dwaine put a military pension. Recent research from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco shows how lucky the McCuistions are: only10 percent of seriously delinquent borrowers on home-loan payments they regain access to the mortgage market in 10 years. "Like we won the lottery," said point Renee.The:Home prices in Las Vegas 3.8 percent per year as the inventory of homes for sale has dropped sharply.


The Pope Social Media Guru In Tweet First @ Pontifex

As Pope Benedict XVI prepares to send his first tweet on December 12, some waiting in hopes over Monsignor Paul Tighe. As Secretary of the Pontifical Council for Social Communications, the Pope Tighe social media. My pastor talked about how he's Irish Born relieve the head of the Catholic Church, which is under the tweet @ Pontifex-in digital world.How Pope thought about making her first tweet? I think he was interested and pleased him. We are waiting for the question. We had to choose a question and contacted him about the question. I wish we just had lined up, but every tweet has been seen and approved by pope.Do you expect the daily tweet? First, I thought it was thin and irregular, possibly related to the current set piece in which the Pope addresses the world. On Sunday, he gave a public address on San Pedro Square. Attendance Wednesday was another opportunity the public. In preparation for that, the Pope could give attention to form that tweet actually came from him. For the initial launch, he responded directly to a question referring to the help of Twitter faith.Did? They know how to build a sense of occasion. They were really helpful, especially the vice president for social change, Claire Diaz-Ortiz.The prospect hack should be of particular concern. We are working with Twitter. They work with a large number of other international and they check them and help them with the appropriate level of security, whether Barack Obama or the Dalai Lama. We feel we have as good security as possible to have the Pope medium.Why not following anyone? The choice between obedience and disobedience in part because we see the Dalai Lama does not follow anyone. How do you decide who to follow? That is one reason why Facebook (FB), where you have to consciously decide who is and who is not a friend, not the best medium. We see the cardinals and bishops following but then what? Barack Obama followed more than 600,000 people. Maybe we should talk about the best practices for global leaders.Why Church today? The number of figures, from cardinals and bishops believe the individual, still on Twitter. In a sense, the presence of the Pope, ex post facto, an endorsement or encouragement to them. We had a lot of people say, We are actively looking at it at least since January, "If the Pope would have, it might be time for me.", When the Pope gives a message that focuses in silence before Day.Silence World Communication? Silence is an important part of communication. If you are not calm, you are not listening. He felt that if we use it properly, we could hear. Social media gives you a way to listen. This is a tremendous potential for helping people learn how to interpret your message. Pope feels new media can also help develop his silence and reflect and teach meditation. He also said that it was possible, using minimal phrase, to communicate important truths.How get the facts down to 140 characters? It is a challenge, but the essence of the teachings of the Bible short. They are not aggressive. Last year, we split the Pope a message for Easter in 40 tweets or 40 short phrase. We went to a site that we created about four years ago Pope2you.net called and asked if anyone wanted to get it. About 30,000 you want to get one of the Pope's daily tweets to Lent.I see the video on the home page to come up, Gangnam style. Sydney diocese is responsible for. This is a great site. We spent about € 2000 ($ 2599) here. In the first week, we had 5 million hits. We have 25 people working full-time on the council. The church is a community. It's not like the network. Look at the video it came. We loved it. We put it on our website and other dioceses choose it. I sent it to my nieces and nephews in Ireland and they love it. That's the power of social media.I know. Pope had 610,000 followers without a tweet made. It's not about trying to time the number of followers. But there are some small satisfaction to see that the numbers are relatively good. But we are not competing with anyone. Name of the game is not about the followers of the Pope. It's about how to reach the people who can be held by, reinforced by, encouraged by the words of the Gospel. If there are followers, they have a new place to preach Christ.So Twitter followers. It's almost like the equivalent of the old market where he was going to push people. We have, with all the ambiguities and difficulties, because that's where the people.


The Shiny Building flaw in China

On Saturday morning in September, prospective home buyers crowded the sales office for Fun City, a community of high-rise development outside of Beijing. Is building still stands half a century from now is anyone's predictions. In July, the flooding raised questions about fitness Lying low stretch of land for intensive development. Local media reported that the nature of the basement adjacent to the City Fun experiencing water-logging, while near the superhighway G-4 submerged. At least 77 people were killed many of them fell on their car, partly because of inadequate drainage or clogged systems.Nearly every month brings news of the failure of infrastructure, dramatic or unusual. In August of $ 300 million on a new eight-lane suspension bridge collapsed in Harbin, sent four trucks crashed and left three people dead. In 2009 a building near completion in Shanghai toppled like dominoes due to inadequate foundation. The UK Telegraph reported that the opening months of last year, $ 210 million Guangzhou Opera House began spilling pane glass windows and huge flaw built into the ceiling. Last year the writer Evan Osnos noted in his New Yorker blog declining home early in his yard: "When the rainy season hit Beijing, our house is starting to show age. About four years, to be exact "All this contradicts the image of overseas Chinese to win" race infrastructure., "As the title of a story Aug. 24 from Foreign Policy put it online. China woes structure is part of the government's focus on volume growth over quality. The idea is to implement as many workers as possible. Mengshu Wang, deputy chief engineer at China Railway Tunnel Group, said that instead of using advanced technology to carve a railway tunnel, the group often prefer to implement millions of pairs of hands with officials identified challenges " to solve the problem of national employment. ". At a forum on green building in 2010, Deputy Minister of Construction Qiu Baoxing said, "Every year, new buildings in China total up to 2 billion square meters and use up to 40 percent of the world's cement and steel , but our buildings can only stand 25 to 30 years on average "U.S. commercial buildings is expected to stand for 70-75 years, according to the U.S. Department of housing and commercial development Energy.For., architectural design and construction usually given a half hour in the U.S., according to Beijing-based landscape architect Paul Maksy. "With such a rapid pace of construction, often with little monitoring of standards," said Stephen Hammer, a professor of energy planning at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology who worked in China. Bad substances can cause problems: The collapse of school buildings in Wenchuan earthquake in 2008 is due in part to the use of low quality cement, so-called developing this. "When the cement is mixed enough or when other elements mixed in, it is not very strong, so any major storm or fatigue can make building this fall," said Francis Cheung, author of A report in 2012 that brokerage firm CLSA, China Infrastructure Bubble. In 2011 the government gave the rules of the materials. "There is a movement towards accordance with building codes and standards," said Hammer MIT. "But the implementation and monitoring remains highly variable." Cutting corners is not a sound long-term strategy of the Chinese economy in the buildings, bridges, and quickly destroyed the road and require relatively frequent replacement . Said Patrick Chovanec, a professor at Tsinghua University School of Economics and Management: "If you have an asset that lasts for 20 or 30 years, twice as long, shorter productive life before you have to refurbish or tear . down "Robert Blohm, an economist and consultant for Asia Resources sharply in Beijing, said China will be able to" stopped ":" Is China still have to pay for another round of infrastructure development is a town or city, dilapidated building landscape? "He Asks.For now, the cash taps open. In early September, China announced plans to build more than 1,200 miles of trails, nine plants to treat sewage, five ports, and 25 subway and intercity rail projects. "In an economic slowdown, the government should take some action countercyclical," said Xu Lin, head of the planning department at the National Development and Reform Commission, the bottom line reporters.The:China building last 25 - 30 years, while the U.S. commercial building expected to stand for 70-75 years.


Alibaba and the Copyright Pirates

In one of the most successful entrepreneurs in China, Alibaba Group Chief Executive Officer Jack Ma is trained in coordination with A-listers. Alibaba Founder billionaire friends movie star Jet Li. Former President Bill Clinton, former California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, Starbucks (SBUX) CEO Howard Schultz, and New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman is one of the big names he's interested Alifest, the annual September celebration of all things Alibaba its corporate headquarters headquarters in eastern China Hangzhou city. Unfortunately for Ma, the Obama administration is not as star-struck, lumping the company with a bad crowd Pirates of suspected copyright annual list of "famous market" that allows the theft of American intellectual owned the government says. Last year, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative took the business-to-business marketplace Ma, Alibaba.com, from a list of names and shame but still Taobao Marketplace, an online mall Ma, the. Not hard to find a knock-off products on the site. Even before the iPhone 5 will be sold in China, Taobao prospective buyers can find cheap doll version (AAPL) new Apple phone, complete with company logo back.For Ma, Taobao reputation is more than embarrassment. Violations in China foreign ownership of trademark and copyright is one of the most recurrent problem in the country business relationship with the U.S. and other countries, and often Ma got an earful from Chinese officials. Getting Taobao, China largest e-commerce, from the list of shame is a major priority. Combating piracy is "not only for the country, it is for our company," Ma said in an interview in June. "If we do not this product is fake, Taobao destroy it." To help solve the problem, Ma and his deputy would be James Mendenhall, a lawyer in Washington that the USTR general counsel for George W. Bush. and now advisor to Sidley Austin, the Chicago law firm where Barack and Michelle Obama worked as a young associate. Alibaba keep Mendenhall company earlier this year to work with U.S. trade associations and corporations worry about piracy on Taobao. While there is hope to solve their problems, Mendenhall also stressed the need for patience. Ma and his team "has a large number of trading on their platform," he said. "They are trying to come to grips with it." Last year, Alibaba has also hired Duberstein Group, a walk firmly established by President Ronald Reagan's chief of staff, Kenneth Duberstein. Since the maintenance Sidley, the company has made several dozen meetings with U.S. government officials, trade organizations, and companies. "It became clear to us that we need to do a little listening," Alibaba spokesman John Spelich, said the conversation focused on improving cooperation between Taobao and security officials in the U.S. brand marketers. Mendenhall "to tell us, look, these are the things you should think about starting to do," said Spelich. On 6 September, Taobao signed a tentative agreement with the trade unions representing Hollywood studio. According to the agreement, Alibaba will require all merchants that sell video online Taobao Mall government issued license, the two sides agreed on measures to make it easier and faster to take offline offenders. On 14 September, the Motion Picture Association of America sends a report USTR (due to the known list come the market this year in December) praised the "significant progress" Alibaba and added, "We are optimistic good that Taobao will continue to take steps necessary "to meet the piracy. The company got a boost again on 20 September when the International Coalition anticounterfeiting, a Washington-based trade group with members in apparel, automotive, consumer goods, entertainment and pharmaceutical industries, among others, also announced that it has reached an agreement with Taobao and other online platforms of China, DHgate. The company has agreed to cooperate with the take-down procedure for pirated products. While Mendenhall is hoping Taobao is not in the list USTR in December, Alibaba said if there are more problems to solve. One of the current priorities is to reduce the amount of time needed for alibaba to investigate the alleged offender after receiving a complaint. "It is still in the process," he said. Bottom line: Washington Attorney for Alibaba Group Jack Ma listening to the complaints but said changes will take time.


What really Marshmallow Test Test Test marshmallow

Walter Mischel? One of the best-known studies in the history of psychology. In 1960, Mischel, then a professor at Stanford, making nursery-school students, put them one-by-one, and give them Treat (they can choose the cake, stick pretzels , or marshmallows) and the agreement as follows: They can eat GFPFE immediately, or wait 15 minutes until the experiment again. If they wait, they get an extra treat. Tracking children from time to time, Mischel found that the ability to live seem trivial exercise has very profound consequences. As they mature and become adults, children demonstrated the ability to wait for a better value, healthy, enjoy greater professional success, and proved to be better off staying in the relationship even decades after they took the test. They are, in short, both at work life.Mischel's been very influential, making its way into popular culture (most recently in this year's romantic comedy The Five-Year Engagement) in a way that only a few academic studies. It has changed the way teachers think about and Psychologist success: lessons is that it is not only the intelligence that is important, but self-control and patience and even tame the impulse from the desire to eat marshmallows that there is a desire to crack the exam or a new study affair.A (PDF), however, shows that we can do, fortunately, a comprehensive study of Mischel's work. Celeste Kidd, cognitive science graduate student at the University of Rochester, lead author on the paper. When he was young, Kidd spent some time working at a shelter for homeless families. He began to wonder how it is grown setting, full of change and uncertainty, can shape the way children respond to such situations Mischel studies presented. "Working there gave me some strong intuitions about what the kids in that situation would do, given the task of marshmallows," he said. "I'm pretty sure the kids will eat the marshmallow immediately." Not because they are weak-willed, but because very little in their care gave them plenty of reason to believe that adults do what they said they would. What is missing from the famous experiment Mischel, Kidd argues, trust.Kidd's own version of the marshmallow study designed to evaluate the effect of trust. First, the three to five-year-old researchers study primed to think of either as reliable or dependable. In the first part of the study, the researchers were handed a piece of paper and crayons bottles are used, and then said a child can use crayons or wait for a better set of art supplies . In the second part of the study, experiments give children small sticker and told the young subjects either more efficient to use a single or a large waiting, sticker. For half the children, the experiment will continue bargaining, returned with a tray-load marker, crayons, and colored pencils, some good sticker. For the other half, the experiment returned a few minutes later said, apologetically, that there's not even any art supplies are better or more efficient stickers.After it, the children were given a marshmallow test. The results were dramatic: nine out of 14 children in a reliable condition last 15 minutes for the second marshmallow, while only one in 14 in reliable condition. If children are not sure they will get a second marshmallow, they will not bother wait.As bend, Mischel himself has seen and played the role of faith confidence in the ability to delay giving satisfaction. Reached while traveling in Europe and asked about the new study, he responded by e-mail links to three papers early. One of them, from 1961, to see whether they are from fatherless households affect the willingness of the child to wait reward.But description Mischel's work has focused primarily on the determination and grit, and many charter schools and education researchers took heart marshmallows are likely to see the results self as the quality of unity that can explain both our children and our decision results adult. In the study of Kidd, willingness to wait rather a situation in nature. Rather than participate in the desperate struggle against their own taste, the young subjects of his study carefully calculate the likelihood that they will actually get a second marshmallow. His work shows that getting children better off waiting in the laboratory and in life is a matter of attracting them with something worth waiting for.