"specific triggers for how and when instability would lead to the collapse of various These regimes can not always known and predictable ... We are not clairvoyant "- James Clapper, director of national intelligence, told the congressional committee in February 2011 that U.S. intelligence agencies believe he did the best they could to monitor the Arab Spring protests.Here's what we know. : some incidents of trouble incite violence, political and social changes, or trigger a series of cyber attacks. The other, a situation that appears to be similar to fade quietly without hitting the masses foolishness. We just can not tell which events are changed ugly.What if you can predict dangerous incident as early? Researchers at Sandia National Laboratories developed an early warning system to alert officials to politically motivated cyber attacks or other threatening activities in the world.In paper (PDF) released late last year, "Proactive Defense for developing Cyber Threat, "Sandia tagapagpananaliksik Richard Colbaugh and Kristin Glass outline computer models say they monitor the Internet to identify the volatile situation weeks before they go south, the" perfect accuracy. "Husband-wife team since 2009 learning how to spread information through social networks to influence behavior. Several predictive models built using the latest analytical approach, with a twist: Colbaugh and Glass map how anger is an extensive conversation with Internet.Most digital efforts depends on the amount of precognition. If the words or phrases mentioned most often, signal an emerging trend and possible opportunities. While the information may be enough for retailers who bet to see "steampunk" is the next hipster hobby that spymasters called Translation: "non-actionable intelligence" not enough detail in the Sandia Act.The researchers solve the problem by Device software trace convoluted way conversation on the internet. They began by tracking the number of times out a particular phrase, use a website that tracks the day-to-day memes sort of early warning system. Their algorithm then takes the data and analyze the relationship between social networks and membership information and influence over each other. Their approach works, Colbaugh said, because it is a combination of social sciences (human power should influence the others) and computer science (the power of Big Data). Study of past events-Duo-34 was analyzed to find the model they unfailingly choose the situations where virtual vitriol exploded into action. "We pay attention not only to communicate, but also how the chatter spread through the network," said Colbaugh.The model that does not require huge investments. Researchers usually run the program over the weekend to $ 10,000 workstation.US Intelligence, embarrassed by the unexpected events that led to the Arab Spring and the historic changes in the region, working with open source tools (PDF ) to make them more prescient about world events. "If I DOD, I want to be best friends with researchers," said Marc Maiffret, chief technology officer of security provider BeyondTrust.The Sandia research interests developed as a method to detect and track emerging social and political events. "Think of the Arab Spring kind of thing," wrote Colbaugh, in an e-mail follow-up. There continues to work at Sandia algorithm "hardening" so that the program can operate without human supervision.For much now, apparently no attempt to use the model to develop a defensive weapon against cyber attacks. Research, Colbaugh shows, is in the public domain and will not be difficult for a large company concern cyber attacks, said the financial services, to change its model use.The Department of Defense, Homeland Security, and Boeing (BA) are listed in the role as sponsor of the Sandia study. DOD and the National Security Agency did not respond to several requests to discuss the role. Boeing, the sponsor only company listed in the paper, did not respond to e-mail requests for interview.Encouraging as emerging research, it is designed to replace the security tools that exist in cyber or traditional methods intelligence gathering. It is best used to zero in on the public chat because, your not alone Web-modus operandi of cyber criminals or state-sponsored pros like John Pescatore, director of emerging security technologies for the SANS Institute , pointed out: "They are not going to yak about social media" Right., but other cyber weapons require quite a lot of rambling to get started. Hacktivists preferred weapon is a denial-of-service (DDoS) attack, which is a type of attack that tested Sandia study. A DDoS attack because it requires coordination involves paralyzing web site by having many computers to send mountains effective data server crash, then refuse service to others. But computer security experts warn and author, Bruce Schneier, the model should be considered at least Sandia research is moving in the right direction "one tool of many.", Said security experts. "The threat intelligence no longer a lagging indicator," says Christopher Ling, senior vice president at Booz Allen Hamilton, who led the military intelligence unit of the company. In Boaz, he said, they are working on a similar approach. "This is the first step," he said Sandia's work. "We need a much more sophisticated analysis."